Polls and elections in 2012: some critical reflexions

Abstract

This article about the opinion surveys designed and published in the mass media during the 2012 presidential election in Mexico. One of the purpose of this paper is to analyze the number of published survey results, their periodicity (as in the case of Milenio, daily which published survey results everyday) and the bandwagon effect, characterized by media coverage as a horse race. Nonetheless, this did not imply an improvement in the surveys’ accuracy. It may be stated that opinion surveys during the election were integrated into the mass media as part of a public performance, with limitations in sample calculations and the selection of survey respondents, which led to mistakes when the surveys were applied.