Current Challenges of Electoral Polls
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Abstract
Despite their pervasive presence in public discourse, electoral surveys remain enigmatic and provoke skepticism. The future utility of these surveys hinges on addressing this skepticism through pedagogical efforts that highlight both their capabilities and limitations. This challenge is exacerbated by their frequent misuse by the media and political entities, alongside the transformative impact of emerging technologies. While the digital revolution offers advantages, such as expanded accessibility, it also introduces challenges, notably evident biases among online panel participants. Nevertheless, Internet-based surveys are positioned as the future, though ensuring inclusivity and diversity poses a significant challenge. Recent electoral inconsistencies, exemplified by the 2019 State of Mexico elections, underscore this challenge and highlight the credibility crisis confronting surveys. Analogous scenarios in global elections present further obstacles for methodological precision. Meeting these challenges necessitates a nuanced comprehension of survey historical evolution, coupled with an understanding of social dynamics and human behavior, alongside technological and methodological innovations in the social sciences.
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References
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