Calentamiento global de la tierra. Un ejercicio econométrico

Abstract

THE WARMING OF THE EARTH´S SURFACE IS ONE OF THE MOST PRESSING TOPICS ON THE GLOBAL AGENDA TODAY, NOT ONLY FOR ECOLOGISTS AND INSTITUTIONS THAT STUDY THE ENVIRONMENT, BUT ALSO FOR GOVERNMENTS OF THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD AND THE POPULATION IN GENERAL. THE INCREASE IN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE CAN CAUSE GRAVE CONSEQUENCES IN THE BOTH THE NATURAL AND SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTS. THE PATTERN OF GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITIES HAS A HIGH COST IN TERMS OF POLLUTION AND GLOBAL WARMING, A REALITY THIS PAPER TRIES TO QUANTIFY BY MEANS OF A SIMPLE ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE CONTINUED CONSUMPTION OF FOSSIL FUELS AT THE PRESENT RATE WILL LEAD TO AN AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE OF ALMOST 15°C; THAT IS, O.46°C HIGHER THAN THOSE REGISTERED IN THE YEAR 1999.