dYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT AND EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND STOCK-EXCHANGE ACTIVITY IN MEXICO

Abstract

THIS ARTICLE ATTEMPTS TO CONTRIBUTE SOME ELEMENTS TO THE THEORETICAL DISCUSSION ON WHETHER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE VALUES MARKET, IN PARTICULAR, EXERTS AN EFFECT ON THE LEVEL OF PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITY. THERE IS A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE DIFFERENT POSITIONS WITHIN THIS THEORETICAL DEBATE AND THEN, BY USING ECONOMETRIC PROCEDURES AND PROCEDURES FROM MULTIVARIED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, PARTICULARLY THROUGH TECHNIQUES OF COINTEGRATION AND EQUILIBRIUM CORRECTION MODELS, TWO HYPOTHESES ARE CONTRASTED: 1) THAT THE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE VALUES MARKET EXERTS A POSITIV EFFECT ON THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH; AND 2) THAT THE PRICE INDEX AND PRICES ON THE MEXICAN STOCK EXCHANGE AND THE VALUE OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MAINTAIN A RELATIONSHIP OF EQUILIBRIUM IN THE LONG TERM, AND THE FIRST CAN BE AN EFFECTIVE PREDICTOR OF THE SECOND.