Los efectos de la recesión estadounidense y del tipo de cambio real sobre el crecimiento económico de México en 2001

Abstract

THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF THIS ESSAY IS TO ANALYZE THE EFFECTS OF THE ECONOMIC RECESSION IN UNITED STATES AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE OVER THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MEXICO FOR THE YEAR 2001. THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OBTAIN THROUGH A VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC RECESSION DOES NOT EXPLAIN COMPLETELY THE REDUCTION BEHAVIOR OF THE RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MEXICO. FURTHERMORES, THERE IS EVIDENCE TO ARGUE THAT THE REAL EXHANGE RATE IS A FUNDAMENTAL VARIABLE IN ORDER TO EXPLAIN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH.