Política agrícola y contratos de futuros: un modelo de arbitraje

Abstract

IN THIS PAPER, WE DEVELOP A MODEL OF GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, WITH PERFECT FORESIGHT, TO ANALYZE THE ARBITRAGE CONDITIONS FOR INTRODUCING IN MEXICO A MARKET OF FUTURES CONTRACTS ON AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES. UNDER THE ASSUMPTION OF A SMALL AND OPEN ECONOMY IN BOTH THE SPOT AND FUTURES MARKETS, WE EXAMINE SEVERAL SCENARIOS OF ARBITRAGE FOR THE MEXICAN CASE IN ITEMS OF THE INTERMEDIATE COSTS OF COMMERCIALIZATION. WE DETERMINE THE FEASIBLE REGIONS OF SUCH COSTS SO THAT THE EQUILIBRIUM CONDITIONS HOLD FOR THE SPOT AND FUTURES MARKETS IN BOTH THE DOMESTICS AND THE REST-OF-THE.WORLD ECONOMIES. WE ALSO CARRY OUT COMPARATIVE STATIC EXCERCISES TO ASSESS THE EFFECTS OF A SUBSIDY ON THE EQUILIBRIUM. FINALLY, WE PROPOSE SOME RECOMMENDATIONS ON AGRICULTURAL POLICY.