Three prospective scenaries of the mexican economy of the year 2001

Abstract

THE POSPECTS OF GROWTH FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN ECONOMY AND THE RESULTING DROP IN INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES HAVE QUESTIONED MEXICO´SS COMPLIANCE WITH ITS ECONOMIC GOALS SET FORTH IN THE GENERAL ECONOMIC POLIY CRITERIA FOR THE YEAR 2001, AS WELL AS IN RECENT FORECASTS CARRIED OUT BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES AND MODELS. THIS ARTICLE PRESENTS THREE PROBABLE MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS BASED ON THE CONSIDERATION THAT THE TWO AFORE MENTIONED VARIABLES WILL WORSEN AND ON THE SUBSEQUENT TIMELY REPONSE OF THE ECONOMIC POLICY OF THE MEXICAN FISCAL AND MONETARY AUTHORITIES.