ECONOMIC GROWTH, REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND MEXICO’S MANUFACTURING EXPORTS, 1998-2020
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Abstract
The main objective of this article is to empirically test, for the case of Mexico over the period 1998-2020, the central hypothesis of the Neostructuralist approach, namely the existence of a positive relationship between the real exchange rate and economic growth. To this purpose, a cointegration model of the Engle and Granger type is used. Stylized facts about trade flows are presented showing some characteristics of the said flows, which allow us to understand why in the Mexican economy the spillovers of technological diffusion are not seen, spillovers which, according to the new international trade theory, are induced by trade liberalization, more specifically by merchandise exports. These stylized facts contribute to the interpretation of the results of the cointegration model as well as to identify some of the factors involved in the external constraints on the growth rate of the Mexican economy (Thirlwall, 1979).
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