EL EFECTO REBOTE DEL CONSUMO DE GAS NATURAL: EL CASO DE GENERACIÓN ELÉCTRICA EN LA REFORMA ENERGÉTICA
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Abstract
Nuestros objetivos son: 1) calcular el impacto del efecto rebote (ER) del consumo de gas natural (GN) de tres tipos de modalidades de generación: central eléctrica pública (CEP), productor independiente de energía (PIE) y autogeneradores (Aut), lo anterior en dos tecnologías de ciclo combinado (CC) y turbogas (TG) y 2) explicar la demanda de GN en la economía mexicana en el periodo de 2000-2020. El ER de ambas PIEs (las plantas pequeñas) y de las plantas de TG es menor que el valor del ER de las ceps (las plantas grandes). Mientras que el valor de la elasticidad respecto de la eficiencia de transformación muestra un promedio menor en las plantas grandes que en las pequeñas. De nuestro análisis se deriva una dualidad del ER: 1) reducir la efectividad de nuevas tecnologías: CEP y PIE CC, dado que la eficiencia (de transformación) no siempre se traduce en ahorros de gas natural y 2) las PIEs reaccionan muy rápido a un alza del precio de gas y reducen su consumo, mientras que las CEPs operadas por la Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) reaccionan lentamente al cambio en precio de gas natural.
THE REBOUND EFFECT OF NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION: THE CASE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION DURING THE ENERGY REFORM
ABSTRACTOur aims are: 1) to calculate the impact of the Rebound Effect (RE) of the consumption of Natural Gas (NG) of three types of generation plants: Public Power Plant (PPP), Independent Energy Producer (IEP), and Self-generators (Aut), the foregoing in two technologies combined cycle (CC) and turbogas (TG) and 2) to explain the demand for NG in the Mexican economy in the period 2000-2020. The RE of both IEPs (small plants), and TG plants is less than the RE value of PPPs (large plants). While the elasticity value with respect to efficiency is lower in large plants than in small ones. Our analysis confirms RE has two impacts: 1) it reduces the effectiveness of new technologies, i.e. PPP and IEP CC since (transformation) efficiency does not always translate into savings in NG; 2) small plants (IEPs) react very quickly to a rise in the price of gas and reduce their consumption, while PPPs operated by Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) react slowly to changes in the price of NG.
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