POLÍTICA FISCAL DISCRECIONAL EN BRASIL, 1995-2017: DESCOMPOSICIÓN Y EVOLUCIÓN
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Abstract
Este artículo tiene como objetivo evaluar la orientación general (expansionista o contraccionista) del componente discrecional de la política fiscal brasileña en el periodo 1995-2017, así como verificar su posición respecto al ciclo económico (procíclica o anticíclica). Con este fin, proponemos y aplicamos una nueva metodología para separar el impulso fiscal discrecional de la parte del resultado fiscal que se obtiene de la activación de los estabilizadores fiscales automáticos. Concluimos que la política fiscal: 1) generó una posición mayormente procíclica (desestabilizadora) de su componente discrecional, lo que la llevó a amplificar en lugar de amortiguar los ciclos económicos; 2) no pudo evitar que la relación deuda pública/PIB entrase en una trayectoria insostenible al final del periodo. Se hacen algunas sugerencias para mejorar su rendimiento.
DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY IN BRAZIL, 1995-2017: DECOMPOSITION AND EVOLUTION
ABSTRACT
This article aims to evaluate the general (expansionist or contractionist) orientation of the discretionary component of Brazilian fiscal policy in the period 1995-2017, as well as to verify its position in relation to the economic cycle (procyclic or anticyclic). To this end, it proposes and applies a new methodology to separate the discretionary fiscal impulse from the part of the fiscal result arising from the operation of automatic fiscal stabilizers. It concludes that fiscal policy: 1) generated a mostly procyclical (destabilizing) position of its discretionary component, leading it to amplify rather than dampen economic cycles; 2) failed to prevent the public debt/GDP ratio from entering the unsustainable path at the end of the period. Suggestions are made to improve its performance.Article Details
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