DÉFICIT FISCAL, CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO E INFLACIÓN, ¿UNA RELACIÓN EXÓGENA?
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Abstract
En este artículo analizamos la relación entre el crecimiento económico, el déficit fiscal y la inflación en México, considerando el periodo en que ha estado vigente la autonomía del Banco de México respecto del gobierno. Estimamos dos modelos CVAR para demostrar que si el gasto de gobierno es endógeno al crecimiento económico, entonces el déficit fiscal no es necesariamente la única causa de la inflación. Nuestros resultados muestran que, aún sin causalidad en el sentido de Granger, existe una relación negativa de largo plazo entre el gasto de gobierno y la inflación. De manera conjunta, ambos modelos revelan que a mayor crecimiento económico, mayor gasto fiscal y menor inflación.
FISCAL DEFICIT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION, AN EXOGENOUS RELATIONSHIP?
ABSTRACT
This paper deals with the relationship between output growth, fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation in Mexico for the period of the independence of Banco de México. A couple of CVAR models are estimated with the aim of testing whether the government expenditure is endogenous to economic growth, in which case the fiscal deficit will not necessarily be the sole source of inflation. According to our empirical results, it is shown that there is a long-run negative relationship between government spending and inflation, without involving a Granger causality. Both models jointly reveal that the higher the economic growth rate, the larger government expenditure and the lower the rate of inflation.
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