LA INDEPENDENCIA DE LOS BANCOS CENTRALES Y LA INFLACIÓN: UN ANÁLISIS EMPÍRICO
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Abstract
En este trabajo analizamos la relación entre la independencia de los bancos centrales y la inflación en un panel de 182 países para el periodo de 1970 a 2018. Para calcular el grado de independencia se utilizan dos medidas, el índice de Garriga (2016), construido a partir de las leyes y reglamentos internos de los bancos centrales, y el índice de Dreher, Sturm y de Haan (2008), basado en la tasa de rotación de los gobernadores. Los resultados indican que una mayor independencia de los bancos centrales está asociada a menores niveles de inflación, tanto para los países de alto ingreso como para los países de bajo y medio ingreso, así como a una menor volatilidad de inflación para la muestra completa de países. Lo anterior contribuye a un mayor bienestar de la población, en la medida en que se evitan los costos asociados a una inflación alta y volátil. Los resultados son robustos al uso de las dos medidas alternativas de independencia, al uso de dos enfoques alternativos para evitar simultaneidad y a la inclusión de variables de control.
THE INDEPENDENCE OF CENTRAL BANKS AND INFLATION: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
ABSTRACT
This paper analyzes the relationship between central bank independence and inflation in a panel of 182 countries for the period from 1970 to 2018. To gauge the degree of independence, two measures are used, the Garriga (2016) index, constructed from the laws and internal regulations of central banks, and the Dreher, Sturm and de Haan (2008) index, based on the turnover rate of governors. The results indicate that greater central bank independence is associated with lower levels of inflation, both for high-income countries and for low and middle-income countries, as well as lower inflation volatility for the entire sample of countries. This contributes to a higher social welfare by avoiding the costs associated with high and volatile inflation. The results are robust to the use of the two alternative measures of independence, to the use of two alternative approaches to avoid simultaneity, and to the inclusion of control variables.
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