¿DEBE LA FED REACCIONAR ANTE LA INFLACIÓN DE LOS ACTIVOS FINANCIEROS?
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Abstract
RESUMEN
El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el debate Bernanke-Gertler (2000, 2001) versus Cecchetti et al. (2000, 2002) sobre si el banco central debe incluir la inflación de los activos financieros en su regla de política monetaria. La hipótesis de investigación es que la regla monetaria convencional de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos, que garantiza la estabilidad de precios, no necesariamente conduce a la estabilidad financiera. En parte esto implica que la dinámica de los precios de los activos contiene información que esta regla soslaya. Los resultados econométricos del análisis empírico sugieren que, contrario a las dos posiciones del debate referido, la inflación de los activos no es inocua. No obstante, su inclusión en la regla antes mencionada provocaría un sobreajuste de la tasa de interés que podría desestabilizar a la macroeconomía.
SHOULD THE FED REACT TO FINANCIAL BUBBLES?
ABSTRACT
The debate between Bernanke-Gertler (2000, 2001) versus Cecchetti et al. (2000, 2002) on whether the Central Bank should react to price asset inflation trends is dealt with in the present paper. It is argued that the US Federal Reserve’s conventional monetary policy rule may well guarantee price stability, but does not necessarily simultaneously lead to financial stability. This signals that asset price dynamics convey some relevant information not captured by the Fed’s rule. Contrary to the conclusions reached by both positions in the aforementioned debate, the paper’s econometric results suggest that, while financial assets inflation is not innocuous, its eventual incorporation in the monetary policy rule would trigger an excessive adjustment of the (interest rate) policy instrument and, thereby, a potential macroeconomic instability.
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