A SFC POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE: KALECKI’S 1943 MODEL REVISITED
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Abstract
ABSTRACT
This paper features a stock-flow consistent (SFC) political business cycle model where the interplay between financial debt, income distribution and fiscal policy is politically mediated by the relative influence of workers and businesses over government policy and publicly provided goods. In countries where taxes are a politically costly alternative to generate fiscal revenue, debt finances fiscal expansionary activity to initially raise wages and increase output. However, institutional mechanisms keep such drivers in check, and prompt a stop-and-go cycle as Kalecki suggested in his landmark 1943 paper. We find that the push of labor interests against business stakeholders leads to non-linear dynamics over debt, deficits and long-term growth paths.
UN CICLO ECONÓMICO POLÍTICO CFC: REVISITANDO EL MODELO DE KALECKI DE 1943
RESUMEN
Este artículo presenta un modelo de ciclo económico-político consistente de flujo-cantidad (CFC) en el cual la interacción entre la deuda financiera, la distribución del ingreso y la política fiscal está mediada políticamente por la influencia relativa de los trabajadores y las empresas sobre la política del gobierno y los bienes públicos. En los países donde los impuestos representan una alternativa para generar ingresos políticamente costosa, la deuda financia la actividad fiscal expansionista para aumentar en primer término los salarios y el producto. Sin embargo, existen mecanismos institucionales que detienen estos motores e inducen un ciclo de interrupción y avance, tal como Kalecki sugirió en su innovador artículo de 1943. Encontramos que el ímpetu de los intereses de los trabajadores en contra de los empresarios conduce a una dinámica no lineal sobre las trayectorias de la deuda, los déficits y el crecimiento de largo plazo.
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