¿SINCRONIZACIÓN FISCAL EN EL NIVEL SUBNACIONAL? MÉXICO 1989-2016
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Abstract
RESUMEN
La relación entre ingresos y gastos del sector público mexicano en el nivel subnacional, incluyendo su nivel de respuesta para recuperarse de un desequilibrio fiscal, ha recibido poca atención. Este artículo contribuye a la comprensión de esa relación, clave para el diseño de la política fiscal y las finanzas públicas. Nuestro marco teórico son las cuatro hipótesis prevalecientes en la vasta literatura teórica y empírica producida en el mundo, inicialmente enfocada en el nivel nacional y que se extiende ya al ámbito subnacional. El estudio que presentamos se basa en técnicas de análisis para paneles de datos que consideran la heterogeneidad de las entidades federativas. La evidencia muestra que predomina la sincronización fiscal con buenos niveles de respuesta para la recuperación de los desequilibrios; encontramos también algún apoyo para otras hipótesis.
FISCAL SYNCHRONIZATION AT SUBNATIONAL LEVEL? MEXICO 1989-2016
ABSTRACT
The relationship between income and expenditure of the Mexican public sector at subnational level —including its level of response to recover from a fiscal imbalance—, key to the design of fiscal policy and public finance, has received little attention. This article contributes to the understanding of such relationship. Our theoretical framework is based on the four hypotheses found in the vast theoretical and empirical literature, which initially focused on the national level and later on the subnational level. The present study relies on data panel techniques considering the heterogeneity of the Mexican republic’s states. The evidence shows predominance of fiscal synchronization with good levels of response for the recovery from imbalances; some support for other hypotheses is also found.
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