TIPO DE CAMBIO REAL, INNOVACIÓN Y CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO: UN ANÁLISIS COMPARATIVO PARA AMÉRICA LATINA Y ASIA
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el papel del tipo de cambio real, frente a la competitividad no precio, en la dinámica del producto. Con este fin, mediante un modelo panel de efectos fijos, estudiamos el impacto del tipo de cambio real, la productividad, el comercio y la inversión extranjera directa sobre el producto interno bruto (PIB) en 12 países de América Latina y 10 países de Asia durante el periodo 1990-2021. Específicamente, contrastamos si un tipo de cambio competitivo (subvaluado) genera efectos positivos sobre la tasa de crecimiento económico. Los principales resultados empíricos sugieren que: 1) las variaciones del tipo de cambio real crean efectos limitados y poco concluyentes sobre el PIB; 2) una mejora en la productividad y la competitividad generan una expansión de la dinámica económica; 3) la apertura económica tiene un impacto positivo, particularmente en los países de Asia, sobre el desempeño económico.
REAL EXCHANGE RATE, INNOVATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR LATIN AMERICA AND ASIA
ABSTRACT
The aim of this paper is to analyze the role of the real exchange rate, compared to non-price competitiveness, on the dynamics of the product. We study, through a fixed effects panel model, the impact of the real exchange rate, productivity, trade and Foreign Direct Investment on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 12 Latin American countries and 10 Asian countries during the period 1990-2021. Specifically, we test whether a competitive exchange rate (undervalued) generates positive effects on the economic growth rate. The main results suggest that: 1) variations in the real exchange rate generate limited and inconclusive effects on GDP; 2) an improvement in productivity and competitiveness generates an expansion of economic dynamics; 3) economic openness has a positive impact, particularly among Asian countries, on economic performance.
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