ESTIMACIÓN DE LA NAIRU PARA MÉXICO, 2002Q1-2018Q2
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Abstract
RESUMEN
Estimamos la tasa de desempleo no aceleradora de la inflación (NAIRU) para México (2002Q1-2018Q2) con la metodología de Ball y Mankiw (2002) utilizando el método generalizado de momentos. Probamos que el cálculo de la NAIRU con esta metodología es más eficiente que el puramente estadístico (filtro HP). Mostramos que: a) la crisis Punto Com y la Gran Recesión generaron efectos reales y duraderos en el mercado laboral; b) probamos que la política monetaria en México ha sido estabilizadora, y c) que la relación entre el desempleo y la inflación se ha fortalecido en los últimos años.
ESTIMATION OF THE NAIRU FOR MEXICO, 2002Q1-2018Q2
ABSTRACT
We estimate the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for Mexico (2002Q1-2018Q2) with Ball and Mankiw’s (2002) methodology using the Generalized Method of Moments. We prove that, with this methodology, the calculation of NAIRU is more efficient than the one calculated with the HP filter. We show that: a) the Dot Com and the Great Recession crises have had real and lasting effects on the labor market; b) Mexico´s monetary policy has been stabilizing, and c) the relationship between unemployment and inflation has strengthened over the last years.
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