Effect of imperfect knowledge of hazards on the reliability of concrete face rockfill dam and breakwater

Abstract

A FORMULATION TO TREAT ALEATORY AND EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTIES, IN A SEPARATE WAY, ON INFRASTRUCTURES IS PROPOSED AND APPLIED TO A DAMAND A BREAK WATER IN MEXICO. THE PURPOSE OF THAT IS TO DETERMINE 2ND ORDER BOUNDS ON THE RELIABILITY ESTIMATION DUE TO THE IN COMPLETE KNOWLEDGE OF SOME DESIGN PARAMETERS. THESE BOUNDS PROVIDE A QUANTITATIVE BASIS FOR RISK MANAGEMENT ACCORDING TO THE RISK-AVERSION OF OWNERS AND OPERATORS OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE. ALSO, ACCEPTABLE VALUES OF RELIABILITY, ARE ASSESSED IN TERMS OF CONSEQUENCES COSTS, AND AN INITIAL COST CURVE FOR A BREAK WATER IS PRESENTED, AS THEY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EN HANCE THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS. THE INCORPORATION OF EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY MAKES THE RELIABILITY INDEX TO BE COME A RANDOM VARIABLE AND ITS HISTOGRAM IS OBTAINED TO ESTIMATE PERCENTILES AS A MEANS TO MEASURE A NEW ADDITIONAL ROOM FOR DECISIONS AS COMPARED TO THE TRADITIONALLY USED MEAN VALUE OF THE RELIABILITY. CONSERVATIVE DECISIONS ARE ILLUSTRATED FOR DE SIGN AND ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURES LIKE A DAMAND A BREAK WATER. THE PROCEDURE IN VOLVES A DOUBLE LOOP OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND REPRESENTS A BASIS FOR THE OPTIMAL DESIGN AND RISK MANAGEMENT OF DAMS AND BREAK WATERS.